The UK’s Mortgage and Property Markets: What’s at Stake in the Upcoming General Election?

As the UK gears up for a general election, the country’s mortgage and property markets are holding their breath. The outcome of the election will have significant implications for the sector, and industry experts are weighing in on what they think the best result would be for the UK’s mortgage, property, and financial services markets.

A Shrewd Move by the Conservatives?

Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages, believes that the Conservatives’ decision to call an election could be a shrewd move. With economic data starting to tip in their favour, the IMF’s endorsement, and inflation getting close to the 2% target, the timing of the election could work in their favour. However, Moy notes that Labour’s lack of clear financial policies could trigger a market response.

“This could be a shrewd move by the Conservatives. The economic data is certainly starting to tip in their favour, and the IMF endorsement on Tuesday and inflation getting close to the 2% target almost certainly influenced this timing.”

A Hung Parliament: The Worst-Case Scenario?

Samuel Mather-Holgate, independent financial advisor at Mather and Murray Financial, is less optimistic about the Conservatives’ chances. He believes that the party has caused the housing market to stagnate, with home builders sitting on their hands and buyers disappearing. Mather-Holgate argues that Labour needs to flesh out its policies quickly, but notes that the Tories have been out of ideas on housing, business, and the economy.

“The Conservatives have been as good for the country as too much sugar is to a diabetic. They have caused the housing market to glue up, with home builders sitting on their hands and buyers disappearing.”

Labour’s Chance to Shine

Michelle Lawson, director at Lawson Financial, believes that Labour’s best gift would be to take housing seriously and make it a senior post. Until this happens, the storm clouds will continue to hover over the housing market.

“Labour’s best gift, if they win, would be to take housing seriously and make housing a senior post. Until this happens, the storm clouds will continue to hover over the housing market, just as they did Rishi Sunak at the lectern.”

A Reset for the UK Housing Market?

Riz Malik, director at R3 Mortgages, is more optimistic about the election’s impact on the housing market. He believes that the election could provide a big boost to the UK housing market, with possible rate cuts and the feel-good factor returning.

“Announcing this election is the best thing Rishi Sunak has ever done for his country. The UK needs a reset, and on 4th July, it will get one.”

Clear and Concise Policies Needed

Ben Perks, managing director at Orchard Financial Advisers, met Rachel Reeves at the 2023 Labour Summit and was impressed by her passion to improve the economy. However, he notes that Labour needs to provide clear and concise policies to win over voters.

“I met Rachel Reeves at the 2023 Labour Summit, and I can vouch for her passion to improve the economy. She is acutely aware of the problems facing mortgage borrowers and is engaging with those on the ground to better her understanding. Her intentions seem pure.”

Labour’s Proposed Policies: A Threat to the Economy?

Dariusz Karpowicz, director at Albion Financial Advice, is less optimistic about Labour’s proposed policies, which include regulating private rents and making evictions nearly impossible. He believes that these measures could create uncertainty and discourage investment in the property market.

“If Labour wins, as current polls suggest, it might not bode well for the economy. Labour has indicated plans to tighten regulations on landlords, potentially making it even tougher for them.”

A Chance for the Tories to Shine

Kundan Bhaduri, property developer and portfolio landlord at The Kushman Group, believes that the election is the best chance the Tories have to shine. He argues that Labour’s policies are bad for developers and landlords, and that the Tories need to paint a clear picture of their opponents’ weaknesses.

“This is the best chance the Tories have. Starmer is bad for developers and landlords, bad for mortgage and finance professionals, terrible for controlling immigration, weak on Ukraine, and most importantly weak on the issue of support for Israel in its fight against Hamas and controlling the motley crew of separatists in Scotland.”

A Fresh Start for the Housing Sector?

Elliott Culley, director at Switch Mortgage Finance, believes that the election provides an opportunity for the housing sector to start anew. He argues that the sector has been in ruin under the recent Conservative government and that Labour needs to tackle the issues decisively.

“Housing was not taken seriously under the recent Conservative government. More than 15 housing ministers since 2010 has left the housing sector in ruin. If Labour does win, they need to tackle the issues in the sector decisively.”

The Economy: A Key Battleground

Daniel Wiltshire, actuary & IFA at Wiltshire Wealth, believes that the economy will be a key battleground in the election. He notes that voters will be wondering whether Labour could really do any worse than the Tories.

“This is the Charge of the Light Brigade stuff. Does anyone other than Rishi think they have a chance?! When it comes to the economy, voters will be wondering whether Labour could really do any worse.”

The Impact on the Property Market

Chris Barry, director at Thomas Legal, notes that the lead-up to the general election has left the property market stagnant. He believes that the election will likely mean a reduction in housing transactions until the result is clear.

“In previous years, the lead-up to a general election has left the property market like a graveyard. Buyers disappear due to the prospect of waiting for what’s on the other side, and vendors tend not to list unless they are forced by personal circumstances.”