UK Mortgage Arrears Growth Slows to Lowest Rate Since Mini-Budget
The rate of UK mortgage arrears growth has slowed to 3.9% in Q1 2024, the lowest quarterly growth rate since the September 2022 Mini-Budget, according to the latest data from Pepper Advantage, a global credit intelligence company.
Mortgage arrears growth slows to lowest rate since Mini-Budget
The report reveals that mortgage arrears growth slowed in Q1 2024 to its lowest rate since Q4 2022, when the combined effects of the cost-of-living crisis and Mini-Budget began to impact UK household budgets.
Regional Variations in Arrears Growth
The North East and North West of England were the only UK regions in which the rate of arrears growth increased, while the West Midlands and East Anglia showed the lowest growth rates of only 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
Regional variations in arrears growth
Age Groups and Arrears Rates
Older age groups have the highest absolute arrears rates: Homeowners aged 60-plus and 51-60 saw the first and second highest levels of arrears respectively, followed by those aged 41-50.
Age groups and arrears rates
However, every age group saw lower growth in the arrears rate in Q1. This trend was particularly noticeable for mortgages owned by people aged 31-40, which grew by only 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, possibly due to a combination of stabilizing inflation and healthy wage growth.
Direct Debit Rejections Fall
The percentage of residential mortgages that experienced a direct debit rejection (DDR) fell 2.3% in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023. This is the first quarterly decrease since Q2 2023 and breaks the trend of DDRs typically increasing following the December holiday period.
Direct debit rejections fall
Commenting on the findings, Pepper Advantage UK managing director Aaron Milburn said: “While the slowing growth in the rate of arrears and lower direct debit rejections are welcome news for lenders and borrowers, the picture remains complex, and the overall level of arrears is still the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.”
“The slowing growth suggests an increasingly resilient UK economy as lower inflation and higher-than-expected wage increases alleviate pressure on household budgets in some areas. However, the disparity seen between regions and age groups shows that financial challenges are not evenly spread.”
He added: “The Q1 data contains some hopeful indicators, but it is too soon to say if these trends will continue into Q2. Managers and lenders must be cognisant that some groups remain under pressure and will likely require support for some time.”
